Seasonality

After the large number of indexes/sectors that entered strong seasonality periods last October, subsequent months have been quite quiet, particularly January and February from a positive seasonality stand-point. However, March is very active, so we will gear up then. January was brutal for many sectors, particularly Information Technology, conversely, Energy in Canada had a sterling January. [more]

January is usually a good month for the stock market as investors are full of positive anticipation for the year ahead. However, with the various Indexes near all-time highs, it might be prudent to adopt a cautious approach to investing this month and, indeed, this year. [more]

The market is entering its historically strong seasonal period, which runs from late October until about mid-May. If this holds true again this/next year, the Indexes will be pounding out new all-time highs on a regular basis. While this could happen, we must also be on the lookout for the “promised” pull-back. [more]

The market is about to enter its traditional seasonal period of strength. This extends from about the middle of October until the end of May. Meanwhile, October can be very volatile so continued caution is required. [more]

The summer months, including part of September, typically are bearish months for the stock market, and it is usual to witness increased volatility as September proceeds. Then, historically, from about mid-September until about mid-January, the market exhibits a decided upturn, although usually a little bumpy along the way. [more]

We have updated our Seasonality Chart (presented at the end of this report) and made significant changes, including updating the beginning-and-end dates for the periods of seasonality strength, and adding a further ten industry sectors. We remain cautious towards the market and recommend defensive positions. Given the recent strong upward movements in stock prices, we would welcome over the summer months a lengthy consolidation period or a meaningful, but healthy, pull-back. [more]

Despite historical evidence of market weakness and, equally, despite market indexes being at or near all-time highs, it is difficult to fight the tape and embrace the well-recognized, widely-followed adage “Sell in May, and Go Away”. However, investors should be very cautious at this point in the cycle. [more]

With the seasonality strength of thirteen indexes/sectors coming to an end in April, it may be prudent for investors to trim their positions before the market enters its traditional weak period of May through September. [more]