We updated our Seasonality Chart last month and made significant changes, including updating the beginning-and-end dates for the periods of seasonality strength, and adding a further ten industry sectors. The Canadian and U.S. markets continue to perform well against all historical odds. How long will this continue before there is a meaningful pull-back? We think that we are getting close to a market reckoning. [more]
We have updated our Seasonality Chart (presented at the end of this report) and made significant changes, including updating the beginning-and-end dates for the periods of seasonality strength, and adding a further ten industry sectors. We remain cautious towards the market and recommend defensive positions. Given the recent strong upward movements in stock prices, we would welcome over the summer months a lengthy consolidation period or a meaningful, but healthy, pull-back. [more]
Despite historical evidence of market weakness and, equally, despite market indexes being at or near all-time highs, it is difficult to fight the tape and embrace the well-recognized, widely-followed adage “Sell in May, and Go Away”. However, investors should be very cautious at this point in the cycle. [more]
With the seasonality strength of thirteen indexes/sectors coming to an end in April, it may be prudent for investors to trim their positions before the market enters its traditional weak period of May through September. [more]
There are a lot of unusual factors at play in the market right now, many of which have never been seen before. That is why it is increasingly important to “keep your eye on the ball”, and use all of the investment tools available to you, including seasonality influences. [more]
Portfolio performance is often top-of-mind at the beginning of a new year. A key to profitable portfolio performance can be gained by assessing the market’s seasonality trends. This report highlights what indexes/sectors are currently going-in/going-out of expected strength in January. [more]
The market is in its typical seasonal period of strength. November was strong and December is off to a great start. The year-end rally is upon us. Do not fight the tape. But know that there will someday be a reckoning. But by how much and when …? [more]
Resolving the outcome of the U.S. election is likely to take some time, and this will continue to influence stock market performance in the days ahead. The market index and market sectors added to the seasonality mix in November are Russell 2000, Energy, Utilities, Real Estate, Biotechs, and Retail. [more]
Historically, September has been one of the worst months of the year to invest, but October has been one of the best. After a strong May-August period (what happened to “Sell in May and go away!”), September was a down-month. So, let’s look forward to October, as traditionally, on average, it has gained 1.2%. [more]
You cannot beat the tape but you can maximize your performance through the use of tried-and-true market aids. Seasonality Trends is one such investment tool for improving market performance. The two sectors added to the seasonality mix in September are Consumer Staples and Natural Gas with eight sectors which end their seasonal strength. [more]
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