April is the final month of the historical period of market strength that begins each year in October. May through September, while generally weaker, can still produce positive returns. We believe that, in 2022, because of the exceptional performance throughout 2021, that overall returns in 2022 will be much more difficult to achieve. [more]
As we mentioned last month, March is a very active month, with a whopping 30 indexes/sectors entering strong seasonality trends, and only 2 ending their latest strong period. Many of these indexes and sectors will need to show “good colours” because performance in the first two months has been brutal almost across the board. Below, we highlight some of the indexes/sectors that are due for a rebound. [more]
After the large number of indexes/sectors that entered strong seasonality periods last October, subsequent months have been quite quiet, particularly January and February from a positive seasonality stand-point. However, March is very active, so we will gear up then. January was brutal for many sectors, particularly Information Technology, conversely, Energy in Canada had a sterling January. [more]
The Santa Claus Rally occurs during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in January. So, how did the latest Santa Claus rally fare this year? The Rally got off to a great start, then fizzled out as the period progressed, and ended up rather poorly. [more]
January is usually a good month for the stock market as investors are full of positive anticipation for the year ahead. However, with the various Indexes near all-time highs, it might be prudent to adopt a cautious approach to investing this month and, indeed, this year. [more]
The market is entering its historically strong seasonal period, which runs from late October until about mid-May. If this holds true again this/next year, the Indexes will be pounding out new all-time highs on a regular basis. While this could happen, we must also be on the lookout for the “promised” pull-back. [more]
The market is about to enter its traditional seasonal period of strength. This extends from about the middle of October until the end of May. Meanwhile, October can be very volatile so continued caution is required. [more]
The S&P 500 Index might have reached a near-term peak. The index is struggling to stay above its rising trend-line. It has also experienced a near-perfect, albeit short, “roll-over”. Is this the start of a pull-back? [more]
We have updated our Seasonality Chart (presented at the end of this report) and made significant changes, including updating the beginning-and-end dates for the periods of seasonality strength, and adding a further ten industry sectors. We remain cautious towards the market and recommend defensive positions. Given the recent strong upward movements in stock prices, we would welcome over the summer months a lengthy consolidation period or a meaningful, but healthy, pull-back. [more]
BLM report showed the U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs in May and unemployment rate declined to 13.3% instead of rising as it was expected; stock markets responded positively to the news. [more]
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