Canadian interest rates rose sharply last week while U.S. rates stayed fairly constant. Spreads in both countries widened, moving away from Inversion. This lessens the possibility of an Economic Recession occurring in the USA. Canada is already on Recession Watch. [more]
The net worth of U.S. households continues to increase while, at the same time, households’ leverage continues to decline. What this means is that U.S. households’ asset values are rising at the same time that risk aversion continues strong. This is a relatively healthy situation. [more]
The RASI has shown some strength in the last few days. It has stopped its downward trend, at least for now, and is set to try and rally above two critical resistance levels given by the current down-trend line at about 490 and the critical 500 level that measures positive or negative market expectations. [more]
There was a sharp rise in interest rates in the final two days of last week. This moved key yield curve ratios away from Inversion levels and resulted in the Recession Barometer in the USA falling to 8.0x from 9.0x. Canada went on a recession Count-Down as of August 8. [more]
The RASI has breached two key technical indicators. The first was going below its down-trend line that started last February. Of even more import, the Index has gone below the critical 500 level that measures positive or negative market expectations. [more]
The last Governor of Hong Kong, Christopher Patten, has written an article, dated September 30, 2019, for Project Syndicate discussing China’s ongoing problem with the Hong Kong protesters. He thinks that, if China’s leaders were more sophisticated, they would act differently. [more]
Most of the yield curve ratio combinations that we follow weakened this past week. However, the most important metric, the 10-year/2-year ratio, actually widened. We will continue to monitor closely U.S. interest rate developments and yield spreads. [more]
Since the August low, the RASI Index showed good momentum, but it has now stalled, “rolled over”, and is heading lower. The DJIA shows the same trend. A new market catalyst is required to get both Indexes moving higher again. [more]
The summer doldrums are coming to an end and the market is looking forward to its annual period of positivity that runs from October through to May-June. However, October is traditionally a volatile month for stocks. So, resolving several geopolitical tensions would do wonders for getting the market “back on wheels”. [more]
After a break-out move that started in late-May/early-June, the price of gold has declined 4.2% since its early-September high. Now gold and its proxy ETFs are trading at critical technical levels. [more]
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