Investor Insights
Ben Bernanke on the Pros & Cons of Negative Interest Rates
Lorimer Wilson from MunKNEE.com summarizes former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s 2016 article about Pros & Cons of negative interest rates. [more]
Interest Rates
Economic Insights
Recession Barometer – Dichotomy!
U.S. economic pundits are now forecasting two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, either Q1 and Q2 or Q2 and Q3. Either way, that is the definition of an Economic Recession. [more]
Economic Insights
Recession Barometer – Combined Spread Falls To 6.5X
Despite plunging interest rates last week, our Recession Barometer actually weakened, lessening the likelihood of an Economic Recession in the USA in the near future. [more]
Economic Insights
Recession Barometer – Canada Continues On Recession Watch
Canadian interest rates have risen quite a bit lately. Also, the spreads are narrowing. However, there is still no change to our Economic Recession forecast for Canada. [more]
Economic Insights
Recession Barometer – Canada Continues On Recession Watch
Canadian interest rates have shown some volatile tendencies of late, but the most recent trend is upwards. Since all of our recession-watch interest rate ratios are and remain inverted, we expect to see deteriorating economic fundamentals occur in Canada over the ensuing twelve months. [more]
Economic Insights
Recession Barometer – U.S. Reading Continues To Fall
Canadian interest rates rose sharply last week while U.S. rates stayed fairly constant. Spreads in both countries widened, moving away from Inversion. This lessens the possibility of an Economic Recession occurring in the USA. Canada is already on Recession Watch. [more]
Calafia Beach Pundit
Net Worth and Risk Aversion
The net worth of U.S. households continues to increase while, at the same time, households’ leverage continues to decline. What this means is that U.S. households’ asset values are rising at the same time that risk aversion continues strong. This is a relatively healthy situation. [more]
Economic Insights
Recession Barometer – Rising USA Spreads Lessen Recession Risk
There was a sharp rise in interest rates in the final two days of last week. This moved key yield curve ratios away from Inversion levels and resulted in the Recession Barometer in the USA falling to 8.0x from 9.0x. Canada went on a recession Count-Down as of August 8. [more]
Economic Insights
U.S. Recession Barometer: Reading Stuck At 9.0X
Most of the yield curve ratio combinations that we follow weakened this past week. However, the most important metric, the 10-year/2-year ratio, actually widened. We will continue to monitor closely U.S. interest rate developments and yield spreads. [more]
Economic Insights
Recession Barometer – Canada: All Key Yield Curve Ratios Are Steepening
The eResearch Recession Barometer for Canada is already in Count-Down mode for a possible Economic Recession occurring within the next 15 to 20 months. All of our key recession-watch yield curve ratios are inverted and are steepening. Does the market know what the current positive economic indicators do not? [more]