Our key metric for forecasting the possibility of an Economic Recession occurring is the 10-year/2-year yield curve ratio. This ratio has now recorded 11 consecutive inverted readings. With this continued Inversion occurrence, our Count-Down to an Economic Recession in Canada has begun. We provide numerous tables and charts to present our case. Our forecast is that an Economic Recession will occur in Canada between November 2020 and April 2021.
In the United States, we monitor three separate yield curve ratio metrics. Two of them are in Inversion, but the key metric, the 10-year/2-year yield curve ratio, is NOT inverted. It must be in order to trigger our Economic Recession Count-Down in the USA. Still, our U.S. Recession Barometer has risen another 0.5x this past week and now stands at a lofty 9.0x.
You can access this week’s Recession Barometer report here: … RB_080919
