Recession Barometer: The 10/2 Yield Curve Indicator – Week Ending April 5, 2019

Earlier this week, we posted an excerpt of an interview between Financial Sense and David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. Mr. Rosenberg laid out his arguments as to why there could be a recession starting in the United States in 2019.

The brouhaha that erupted at the end of March/beginning of April about USA yields recording an inversion and, therefore, a recession is a certainty belies a more rational analysis. The inversion in question reflects the short-lived 10-year yield falling below the 3-month yield. It reversed this past week. The 10Y/3M is but one of many yield comparisons that could be made. Indeed, the 5-year/2-year yield comparison shows that an inversion has been in place since March2.

You can access this week’s full report on the spread of the 10-year/2-year yield curve here … … RB_040519

About Bob Weir 3002 Articles
Bob Weir has over 50 years of investment research and analytical experience in both the equity and fixed-income sectors, and in the commercial real estate industry. He joined eResearch in 2004 and was its President, CEO, and Managing Director, Research Services until December 2018. Prior to joining eResearch, Bob was at Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS).