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Economic Insights

Recession Barometer – No Worries for USA, Yet

We have completed a comprehensive review of the possibility of a recession occurring in the USA in the near future. While there is no expectation currently, if Covid-19 escalates globally, the situation could change very quickly. [more]

Calafia Beach Pundit

Key Market Indicators Updated

Scott Grannis, the Calafia Beach Pundit, says that although the stock market is high historically, there is still considerable skepticism and caution present. Thus, if the coronavirus and certain political disquiet were to fade, he says that there still seems to be substantial room for a further advance in equity prices. [more]

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Economic Insights

Recession Barometer – Canada Continues On Recession Watch

Canadian interest rates have shown some volatile tendencies of late, but the most recent trend is upwards. Since all of our recession-watch interest rate ratios are and remain inverted, we expect to see deteriorating economic fundamentals occur in Canada over the ensuing twelve months. [more]

Economic Insights

Recession Barometer – U.S. Reading Continues To Fall

Canadian interest rates rose sharply last week while U.S. rates stayed fairly constant. Spreads in both countries widened, moving away from Inversion. This lessens the possibility of an Economic Recession occurring in the USA. Canada is already on Recession Watch. [more]

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Economic Insights

U.S. Recession Barometer: Reading Stuck At 9.0X

Most of the yield curve ratio combinations that we follow weakened this past week. However, the most important metric, the 10-year/2-year ratio, actually widened. We will continue to monitor closely U.S. interest rate developments and yield spreads. [more]