Economic Insights

According to trend-tracking and prediction technology firm RIWI, data suggests U.S. economic recession is much deeper than current jobs data is reporting and Biden has a slight lead on Trump for the Presidential election but beware of the “shy Trump voter” effect. [more]

Recently, the Trump administration ordered more than 500,000 doses of Remdesivir, fully clearing out Gilead’s supply for July and taking 90% of Gilead’s production in August and September, leaving no supply for the rest of the world. [more]

The US stock market indices had their best week in 45 years and new coronavirus cases & unemployment claims have plateaued, but the VIX is still in a volatile range. [more]

In addition to earlier measures that supplied more than $1 trillion to purchase Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, the new U.S. Fed programs include support for the “Main Street” lending initiative, loans to states and municipalities, and buying “riskier” assets. [more]

The VIX is in a volatile range, with new coronavirus cases & unemployment claims continuing to rise, and the S&P 500 might still have room to drop. [more]

U.S. economic pundits are now forecasting two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, either Q1 and Q2 or Q2 and Q3. Either way, that is the definition of an Economic Recession. [more]

Despite plunging interest rates last week, our Recession Barometer actually weakened, lessening the likelihood of an Economic Recession in the USA in the near future. [more]

We have completed a comprehensive review of the possibility of a recession occurring in the USA in the near future. While there is no expectation currently, if Covid-19 escalates globally, the situation could change very quickly. [more]