Spotlight on : U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

SHARP SPIKE IN U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

March 28, 2020 Bob Weir Chart-of-the-Day

eResearch | Last week, almost 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits during the widespread layoffs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The surge in weekly applications greatly surpassed the 665,000 claims filed in March 2009 during the financial crisis and the all-time record of 695,000 claims filed in October 1982 during the early 1980’s recession.

GRAPH 1: U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Weekly Unemployment Claims

2020-03-28 US unemployment claims

After the unemployment rate hit a 50-year low in February of 3.5%, the number of unemployment benefit claims filed implies an unemployment rate approaching 5.5%, according to Bloomberg economists.

With millions of more virus-related job losses to come, Ellen Zentner, an economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research note that the U.S. unemployment rate could reach almost 13% in the second quarter as the pandemic in the U.S. has yet to peak.

Since 1940, the highest jobless rate in the U.S., was 10.8% during the recession in the early 1980’s and peaked at the end of 1982.

GRAPH 2: FRED Unemployment Rate (U.S.)

FRED Graph

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About Bob Weir 329 Articles
Bob Weir has over 50 years of investment research and analytical experience in both the equity and fixed-income sectors, and in the commercial real estate industry. He joined eResearch in 2004 and was its President, CEO, and Managing Director, Research Services until December 2018. Prior to joining eResearch, Bob was at Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS).

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