In this article, Mr. Grannis analyzes the recent U.S. GDP numbers. Although he says that the market remains skeptical, he remains economically bullish.
It is old news by now, but today’s Q4/18 GDP report came in a bit stronger than expected (+2.6% vs +2.2%), and growth for the calendar year 2018 (3.1%) was the strongest in more than a decade, and stronger than the 2.3% average annual growth rate of the current economic expansion. However, the market is acting like it thinks this may be the high-water mark for the foreseeable future. This is a show-me market, and so far the economic improvement we have seen under Trump’s ministrations is less than spectacular, and certainly less than supply-siders (like me) would have expected to see given Trump’s successes at rolling back regulatory burdens and slashing corporate income tax rates. But it is, nevertheless, progress.
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