Financial Sense: Lagged Effect of Fed Tightening and Corporate Deleveraging (Recession)

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, says the odds of a U.S. recession in 2019 are rising and are probably much higher than the consensus expects.

Mr. Rosenberg says, “It is interesting that people will say, well, the New York Fed probability model is only 25%. (See chart below.) I can breathe easy. But, normally, recessions start when that index gets between 30% and 40%. It never gets to 100%. So, if you normalize it, in fact, it is telling you that we have a three-in-four chance of seeing a recession, not next year, but this year.”

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You can access the article (an excerpt) from Financial Sense : … …   HERE

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Bob Weir has over 50 years of investment research and analytical experience in both the equity and fixed-income sectors, and in the commercial real estate industry. He joined eResearch in 2004 and was its President, CEO, and Managing Director, Research Services until December 2018. Prior to joining eResearch, Bob was at Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS).