Recession Barometer

We have completed a comprehensive review of the possibility of a recession occurring in the USA in the near future. While there is no expectation currently, if Covid-19 escalates globally, the situation could change very quickly. [more]

We have completed a comprehensive review of possible recession tendencies in both the USA and Canada in a twelve-page report that includes current tables, charts, and graphs.
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We have completed a comprehensive review of possible recession tendencies in both the USA and Canada in a ten-page report. [more]

Canadian interest rates have risen quite a bit lately. Also, the spreads are narrowing. However, there is still no change to our Economic Recession forecast for Canada. [more]

Canadian interest rates have shown some volatile tendencies of late, but the most recent trend is upwards. Since all of our recession-watch interest rate ratios are and remain inverted, we expect to see deteriorating economic fundamentals occur in Canada over the ensuing twelve months. [more]

Canadian interest rates rose sharply last week while U.S. rates stayed fairly constant. Spreads in both countries widened, moving away from Inversion. This lessens the possibility of an Economic Recession occurring in the USA. Canada is already on Recession Watch. [more]

There was a sharp rise in interest rates in the final two days of last week. This moved key yield curve ratios away from Inversion levels and resulted in the Recession Barometer in the USA falling to 8.0x from 9.0x. Canada went on a recession Count-Down as of August 8. [more]

Most of the yield curve ratio combinations that we follow weakened this past week. However, the most important metric, the 10-year/2-year ratio, actually widened. We will continue to monitor closely U.S. interest rate developments and yield spreads. [more]